Bajaj Auto, TVS, Maruti may lead auto sales growth numbers in March; Here’s why


The two wheeler and Passenger Vehicles sales are likely to see their strong sales volume growth momentum continue in the month of March too. The Two wheeler sales momentum caught pace starting November and has continued ever since. Some recovery in rural demand has also helped though base during the month of March was slightly high led by festival season mismatch . For passenger vehicles the trend too has remained favorable helped by utility vehicles demand even though entry level vehicle sales continue to suffer . Commercial vehicle sales remain a mixed bag while tractor sales are likely to remain tepid.

As Automobile OEM (Original Equipment manufacturers) report volume numbers early next week, analysts at Jefferies India Pvt Ltd expect wholesale to grow strongly at 14-19% YoY for Bajaj Auto Maruti Suzuki India Ltd , TVS Motor Company. For Tata Motors and Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield) the sales are expected to grow 5-7% year-on-year. However for  Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Jefferies expect volumes growth to remain flattish YoY and decline 6-7% YoY for Ashok Leyland and Hero MotoCorp . 

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TVS Motor Company and Eicher Motors, followed by Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors  are Jefferies preferred Buys in the India auto sector.

Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) highlighted that their interactions with leading channel partners also indicated a sustained recovery in two wheeler demand. Though a week prior to Holi saw tepid sales growth and March 2023 base also was high thanks to festival season sales led by Navratri, Gudi Padwa in March 2023.  Nevertheless despite this, MOFSL expects two wheeler segment posting a retail growth of 10-12% year-on-year for the month. 

They  expect dispatches for Hero MotoCorp , Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield) to grow 5%, 15%, 23% and 7% YoY respectively.

Passenger Vehicle sales are also expected to grow 3-5% YoY. The healthy demand in the Utility Vehicles segment though is positive, base remains high thanks again to the mismatch in festival season and also upcoming elections are impacting bookings.

Commercial Vehicle sales remain in slow lane. While  Light Commercial vehicles are seeing flattish growth the heavy vehicles are seeing some decline. This slowdown though is considered as temporary nevertheless for March MOFSL  expects Tata Motors , Ashok Leyland VE Commercial Vehicles sales to decline 8%, 9% and 12% YoY respectively.

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Tractor sales however remain impacted due to a higher base, uncertainties pertaining to monsoon  season and low reservoir levels. While MOFSL expects dispatches for M&M and Escorts to decline ~18% and 17% respectively, Jefferies sees M&M tractor volumes declining 29% year-on-year

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions


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Published: 28 Mar 2024, 11:51 AM IST


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