FY24 Review | Brent rises 9% in last 12 months; Will oil hit $100 in FY25?
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Oil benchmark Brent crude futures has moved sideways in the last 12 months – between April 2023 to March 2024, majorly due to the supply cuts announced by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) as well as the Israel-Hamas war. Oil producing majors including Saudi Arabia and Russia have since then defended the oil production cuts as a precautionary measure, aimed at the ‘stability of the oil market’.
Among other reasons, Ukraine’s drone attack on Russian refineries and OPEC extending its supply cuts till mid-2024 have also dictated the movement of crude oil prices. Overall, the Brent crude’s highest mark achieved in FY24 was $97.69 per barrel in September 2023, after the Israel-Hamas war breakout. The lowest was $71.28 per barrel in May 2023, ahead of OPEC’s June policy meeting.
How have crude prices moved in FY24?
-In April 2023, OPEC+ announced oil production cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) in a surprise decision. The shock cut, led by Saudi Arabia, immediately drove crude oil prices 8 per cent higher to $83.95 a barrel, which at the time – was the highest rise in more than a year. The voluntary cuts started from May 2023 and were put in place to last until the end of the year.
-OPEC+ met for its scheduled oil output policy decision in June 2023 and announced that it will reduce overall production targets from 2024 by a further total of 1.4 million bpd. OPEC nations produce around 30 per cent of the world’s crude oil. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer within the cartel, producing more than 10 million bpd. OPEC+ pumps around 40 per cent of the world’s crude.
-However, Saudi Arabia, OPEC cartel’s dominant member, announced that it will alone make deep production cuts of 1 million bpd starting from July, as part of a broader output-limiting OPEC+ deal as the group faces flagging oil prices and a looming supply glut. The rest of the OPEC producers then had agreed to extend earlier cuts in supply through the end of 2024.
-A month later, Russia joined Saudi to announce an extra oil export curb of 300,000 bpd. In September, Saudi Arabia and Russia together announced that will extend with the oil supply curbs of more than 1.3 million bpd till the end of the year. The production cuts first announced by the oil majors in July led to a sharp surge in international crude prices – reaching almost one-year high levels.
-By the end of September 2023, crude oil prices had risen 30 per cent in three months, with Brent staring at the $100/bbl-mark, over the supply cuts by the oil producing majors. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose 29 per cent and Brent futures surged 27 per cent between July-September.
-In October 2023, the Israel-Hamas war drove crude oil prices between 3-6 per cent, however, the momentum could not be sustained as global demand concerns outweighed the impact of supply cuts.
-In its November 30 policy meeting, the OPEC+ agreed to a combined 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in output cuts for the first quarter of next year. The market has been concerned, however, that some members may not adhere to their commitments.
Crude price outlook for FY25: Will Brent hit $100/per barrel mark?
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Published: 30 Mar 2024, 09:12 PM IST
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